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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-02-03T19:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-02-03T19:00Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44446/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the west/northwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 imagery. This event is visible to the northwest in STEREO A COR2 imagery following a data gap that ends at 2026-02-04T03:23Z. The source may be related to a slow-to-lift off filament eruption starting around 2026-02-03T15:00Z which spans ~N20W30 to ~N00W45 as seen in SDO AIA 193/304 imagery. A subsequent dimming is observed in SDO AIA 193 imagery around this time which appears to move westward.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-02-07T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/44449/1
Model Inputs:
2026-02-03T19:00:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=27.0, Lat.=5.0, Speed=321.0, HalfAngle=22.0, Time21.5=2026-02-04T05:47Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-02-07T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-02-05T22:23Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-02-07T10:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-02-07T06:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260204_054700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260204_054700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260204_054700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260204_054700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260204_054700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260204_054700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260204_054700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260204_054700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260204_054700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260204_054700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260204_054700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260204_054700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260204_054700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260204_054700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260204_054700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20260204_054700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 73.78 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Elizabeth Juelfs (LASSOS) on 2026-02-04T14:13Z

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